Muntu favoured to replace Besigye

It has been long nursed by political gurus that the disbandment of pluralism shortly after Africa grabbed freedom led to the entrenchment of single party rule that groomed the worst dictators in the world. Here in Uganda the Obote regime left the country not only wounded but faced with a new design of politics...the military bit that surfaced in the name of stamping out dictatorship...see what Amin did to Uganda. And in Africa as a whole, the post single party rule brought what Prof. Ali Mazrui described as "rug-tagged" and in most places under-facilitated revolutionaries into power. Some used coup detats while others waged wars-and-they were welcomed by the public. But the public forgot one thing. When military men galvanise the body politic of any country, it becomes almost impossible for people to feel confident if they are not governed by the military-backed politicians. In Uganda, the same disease has gripped the country. For history dictates that in 1996 when Democratic Party strongman Paul Ssemwogerere, a civillian stood with Museveni Yoweri, a former warlord, it was cristal that Paul had no niche. But when FDC stalwart and former warlord poised his military force against Yoweri-the election-heat the country felt was unbelievable...and now the succession debate in the two higly military parties has begun to rotate on the public philosophical mandle of militarism defining body politic...in FDC much as there people like Major Rubaramira Ruranga, Col Amanya Mushega...the presidencial succession toss will land on former army commander Mugisha Muntu...

If Dr. Kizza Besigye chooses not to run for the FDC presidency come2010, Uganda's most popular opposition party could look to Maj. GenMugisha Muntu, the party's Organizing Secretary--a survey suggests.The political survey which was conducted by the Steadman Group in 55districts in December last year indicates that Muntu, the longestserving army commander so far, would be better placed, more than anyother person in Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) to replace Besigye,who has twice contested for the national presidency and lost toPresident Yoweri Museveni of the NRM.Out of the 1,979 respondents interviewed for the survey, 669 or (10%)revealed Muntu, who also represents the party in the East AfricanLegislative Assembly, would be their preferred candidate if FDCdecided to get a new leader.Other possible party presidential candidates surveyed include Prof.Ogenga Latigo, the Leader of Opposition and FDC Vice President (North)who garnered 9%. Former Bugabula South MP who is also a party VicePresident Salaamu Musumba also registered 9%.Meanwhile, Aswa County MP Reagan Okumu who last year hinted that hemight stand for party president, sparking off a heated successiondebate, scooped only 2%, emerging last. However, 20% of therespondents did not commit themselves on the question.The survey question was: "Since you feel that Kizza Besigye should notstand, who else would be your preferred personality to run forpresident under FDC?"Succession debateIn a way, the findings of the survey confirm what has long beensuspected as well as believed by some quarters in FDC that--- thatMuntu, perhaps more than any leader in FDC, would be better suited toreplace Besigye, if the FDC leader was to step aside.Muntu is known to be an objective thinker, a principled person and aneffective mobiliser.What's more, his military background puts him on a good standing,considering the widely held belief that no one in the opposition canchallenge President Museveni or rule the country, without marshallingthe support of the military.Beyond these factors, the survey results are likely to re-ignite thesuccession debate in the party, which was ignited by Okumu last year.Though Besigye said then that it was good for someone else to come upand challenge him, it is known that Okumu's challenge created tensionswithin the party.Yet crucially, there are emerging voices in FDC to the effect thatBesigye's time is up--on account of having failed twice to defeatPresident Museveni.Secondly Besigye, while seen as charismatic by some people, is seen as"too tough and angry" by others, a trait that some commentators sayworks against him.But Besigye remains very popular, going by the survey.Asked if Besigye should return as FDC candidate come 2011, 53% of therespondents said 'yes' while 34% said 'no'.Muntu remains cautious and says he will not be swayed by the findingsof the Steadman Group, a research firm. "Issues of leadership areparty issues. I will have to look at the report first, study it andthen take it on," Muntu said.